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Latest Bitcoin News:

Satoshi Nakaboto: Winklevosses launch their Bitcoin exchange in the UK

Other Related Bitcoin Topics:

Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain

The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools.

submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]
Satoshi Nakaboto: Winklevosses launch their Bitcoin exchange in the UK

Other Related Bitcoin Topics:

Bitcoin Price | Bitcoin Mining | Blockchain

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed

You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

## BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

## WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

## STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

## STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

**The ELI5 version:** The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

## STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

## STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:

**Returns** column

Calculate Daily Returns

## STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called **returns**, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range **returns**:

Name the range returns

## STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:

In K1, enter:

**close**.

In K2, enter:

**dailyVolatility**

In K3, enter:

**annualVolatility**

In K4, enter:

**dailyDrift**

In K5, enter:

**annualDrift**

In K6, enter:

**meanDrift**

Create Summary Statistics Table

## STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

### Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:

Time

### Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

**Normdist** column:

Normdist

### Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.

In L13, put the formula:

Log Return

### Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

Simulated Price

### Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

## STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

## STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:

## STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:

**How to read:** We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.

**Wait really? Should I buy?** No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

## CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

## WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

## RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

## About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to BitcoinMarkets [link] [comments]
You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:

- Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
- Get historical daily bitcoin prices
- Calculate daily returns
- Name the daily return range
- Summary statistics
- Simulate a year
- Simulate a year many times
- Multi-year summary statistics
- Quick analysis of results

- The change in price over one period of time is unrelated to the change in price over a disjoint period of time.
- The change in log(price) over any period of time is normally distributed with a distribution depending only on the length of the period.
- Samples of the distribution are continuous, with probability 100%.

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

- B is the bitcoin price
- m or "mu" is the expected return
- s or "sigma" is the standard deviation of returns
- t is time
- e or "epsilon" is the random variable

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

=LN(C2/B2)Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire

Calculate Daily Returns

Name the range returns

In K1, enter:

=C2and name it

In K2, enter:

=STDEV(returns)and name it

In K3, enter:

=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365)and name it

In K4, enter:

=AVERAGE(returns)and name it

In K5, enter:

=dailyDrift*365and name it

In K6, enter:

=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2and name it

Create Summary Statistics Table

=J12+1Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377

Time

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1)Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole

Normdist

In L13, put the formula:

=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13Copy the formula all the way down to L377:

Log Return

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

=M12*EXP(L13)Copy the formula all the way down to M377:

Simulated Price

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1))Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5Multiyear Summary Statistics

Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed

You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

## BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

## WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

## STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

## STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

**The ELI5 version:** The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

## STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

## STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:

**Returns** column

Calculate Daily Returns

## STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called **returns**, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range **returns**:

Name the range returns

## STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:

In K1, enter:

**close**.

In K2, enter:

**dailyVolatility**

In K3, enter:

**annualVolatility**

In K4, enter:

**dailyDrift**

In K5, enter:

**annualDrift**

In K6, enter:

**meanDrift**

Create Summary Statistics Table

## STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

### Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:

Time

### Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

**Normdist** column:

Normdist

### Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.

In L13, put the formula:

Log Return

### Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

Simulated Price

### Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

## STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

## STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:

## STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:

**How to read:** We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.

**Wait really? Should I buy?** No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

## CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

## WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

## RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

## About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]
You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:

- Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
- Get historical daily bitcoin prices
- Calculate daily returns
- Name the daily return range
- Summary statistics
- Simulate a year
- Simulate a year many times
- Multi-year summary statistics
- Quick analysis of results

- The change in price over one period of time is unrelated to the change in price over a disjoint period of time.
- The change in log(price) over any period of time is normally distributed with a distribution depending only on the length of the period.
- Samples of the distribution are continuous, with probability 100%.

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

- B is the bitcoin price
- m or "mu" is the expected return
- s or "sigma" is the standard deviation of returns
- t is time
- e or "epsilon" is the random variable

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

=LN(C2/B2)Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire

Calculate Daily Returns

Name the range returns

In K1, enter:

=C2and name it

In K2, enter:

=STDEV(returns)and name it

In K3, enter:

=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365)and name it

In K4, enter:

=AVERAGE(returns)and name it

In K5, enter:

=dailyDrift*365and name it

In K6, enter:

=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2and name it

Create Summary Statistics Table

=J12+1Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377

Time

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1)Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole

Normdist

In L13, put the formula:

=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13Copy the formula all the way down to L377:

Log Return

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

=M12*EXP(L13)Copy the formula all the way down to M377:

Simulated Price

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1))Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5Multiyear Summary Statistics

Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

Original Medium post can be found here: https://medium.com/@spreadstreet/bitcoin-madness-how-to-simulate-bitcoin-prices-in-google-sheets-c61cb42f26ed

You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

## BITCOIN IS A VOLATILE BEAST

Risk analysis must be a part of every decision you make.

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

## WHERE TO START?

Running simulations can prepare us for the worst.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

## STEP 1. WTF IS GEOMETRIC BROWNIAN MOTION?

The geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a statistical method that is used heavily in the forecasting of stock prices. The reason the process is so attractive for this is because of the following:

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

## STEP 1A. THE THUNDER GOD ELI5

**The ELI5 version:** The thunder god Zeus is a great god. A just god.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

## STEP 2. HISTORICAL DAILY BITCOIN PRICES

Copy the raw data scores from coinmarketcap. Paste the data into your own spreadsheet.

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

## STEP 3. CALCULATE DAILY RETURNS

Calculate daily returns from the "Close" price. in H2 put the formula:

**Returns** column

Calculate Daily Returns

## STEP 4. NAME THE DAILY RETURNS RANGE

Create a named range from the returns column, called **returns**, to make our life easier. Highlight all the data in column H, i.e. cells H1:H1000, then click on the menu Data > Named ranges… and call the range **returns**:

Name the range returns

## STEP 5. SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the close, daily volatility, annual volatility, daily drift, annual drift, and mean drift of our population. The formulas are:

In K1, enter:

**close**.

In K2, enter:

**dailyVolatility**

In K3, enter:

**annualVolatility**

In K4, enter:

**dailyDrift**

In K5, enter:

**annualDrift**

In K6, enter:

**meanDrift**

Create Summary Statistics Table

## STEP 6. SIMULATE A YEAR

Setup the yearly simulation table with Time, Normdist, Log Return, and Simulated Price

### Time

In J12 put 0, and in J13 put:

Time

### Normdist

Let’s set up the normal distribution curve values.

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

**Normdist** column:

Normdist

### Log Return

To get the percentage of daily stock movement, we will calculate log return.

In L13, put the formula:

Log Return

### Simulated Price

Now to the real meat. Let's calculate the simulated Bitcoin price.

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

Simulated Price

### Forecasted Bitcoin price for one year

Let's see what the pricing data looks like.

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

## STEP 7. SIMULATE A YEAR MANY TIMES

We completed one simulation, but we want to run many different trials.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

## STEP 8. MULTI-YEAR SUMMARY STATISTICS

Set up a small summary table with the mean, median, standard deviation, min, max, and range of our new population. The formulas are:

## STEP 9. QUICK ANALYSIS OF RESULTS

My results will look different than yours (due to the random nature of NORMDIST and the time you pulled the Bitcoin prices). But let's take a look at the results:

**How to read:** We can be 95% certain that the price of Bitcoin will fall between $3,005, and $81,998 in one year.

**Wait really? Should I buy?** No, this is not telling you to buy. This should be one tool of many to help you in your buying and risk decisions.

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

## CONCLUSION

You now know how to complete a geometric Brownian motion analysis of Bitcoin prices. Congratulations!

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

## WANT YOUR OWN COPY?

Simulate Bitcoin Prices Download

## RELATED POSTS

High-Flyers and Shitcoins: What I Learned from Analyzing CoinMarketCap Data in Google Sheets

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

## About the Author

John Young is the founder of Spreadstreet, former financial analyst for a big-ass company, and runner-up in the 6th grade spelling bee. He would have invested in Google if he knew about it...and had any money.

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

submitted by 1kexperimentdotcom to Bitcoin [link] [comments]
You know the scenario...

Bitcoin had another huge increase, but you missed the opportunity. You wanted to get in, but your gut instinct told you no. And rightfully so...no one knows where the price is going to go. What if you invested, and it had another 20% loss? These sort of price movements are common in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.

Seriously...how far can this Bitcoin price really go?

You are constantly faced with uncertainty, ambiguity, and variability. Variability, in the case of Bitcoin, unlike anything we have ever seen before. And even though we have unprecedented access to information, we can’t accurately predict the future.

Luckily, we have methods that enable you to see all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) allows for better decision making under uncertainty.

One of the most common ways to estimate risk is the use of a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). From Investopedia:

For example, to calculate the value at risk (VaR) of a portfolio, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to predict the worst likely loss for a portfolio given a confidence interval over a specified time horizon - we always need to specify two conditions for VaR: confidence and horizon. (For related reading, see The Uses And Limits Of Volatility and Introduction To Value At Risk (VAR) - Part 1 and Part 2.)A MCS can be run with many different models. Our own process will be:

- Specify a model (for here, we will use geometric Brownian motion)
- Get historical daily bitcoin prices
- Calculate daily returns
- Name the daily return range
- Summary statistics
- Simulate a year
- Simulate a year many times
- Multi-year summary statistics
- Quick analysis of results

- The change in price over one period of time is unrelated to the change in price over a disjoint period of time.
- The change in log(price) over any period of time is normally distributed with a distribution depending only on the length of the period.
- Samples of the distribution are continuous, with probability 100%.

Math geeks have a habit of making things infinitely more complicated than they have to be. I will do my best to make this as simple as possible.

The formula for GBM is as follows:

gBm formula

Where:

- B is the bitcoin price
- m or "mu" is the expected return
- s or "sigma" is the standard deviation of returns
- t is time
- e or "epsilon" is the random variable

For each time period, our model assumes the price will "drift" up by the expected return. But the drift will be shocked (added or subtracted) by a random shock. The random shock will be the standard deviation "s" multiplied by a random number "e". This is simply a way of scaling the standard deviation.

But Zeus is subject to wild mood swings.

Every day Zeus can shoot his magic lightning into the price of Bitcoin, and cause it to go up or down.

Some days he is in such a good mood, that he shocks the price up by a random amount. On other days, he is in such a poor mood that he shocks the price down for opposing him.

Zeus Striking Down the Price

And thus, we have the essence of GBM: a series of steps with an expected upward drift, where each step is hit with a plus/minus shock (which is a function of the stock's standard deviation).

For this exercise, your columns will be: Time, Open, Close, High, Low, Volume.

Columns Setup OHLCV

Want to automatically pull in Bitcoin prices? Use the Spreadstreet Google Sheets Add-in.

=LN(C2/B2)Drag it all the way down to the end of the prices to fill the entire

Calculate Daily Returns

Name the range returns

In K1, enter:

=C2and name it

In K2, enter:

=STDEV(returns)and name it

In K3, enter:

=dailyVolatility*SQRT(365)and name it

In K4, enter:

=AVERAGE(returns)and name it

In K5, enter:

=dailyDrift*365and name it

In K6, enter:

=dailyDrift-0.5*dailyVolatility^2and name it

Create Summary Statistics Table

=J12+1Drag it all the way down to your preferred forecast timeframe. Here I simulated a year (365 days), so I copied down to J377

Time

Google Sheets has a formula NORMDIST which calculates the value of the normal distribution function for a given value, mean and standard deviation. Since we ascribe to the random walk theory, we want to use a mean of 0, and a standard deviation of 1.

In K13, put the formula:

=NORMINV(RAND(),0,1)Drag it all the way down to K377 to fill the whole

Normdist

In L13, put the formula:

=meanDrift+dailyVolatility*K13Copy the formula all the way down to L377:

Log Return

In M12 put the Close price, and in M13, put:

=M12*EXP(L13)Copy the formula all the way down to M377:

Simulated Price

Select from M12 to M377, then Insert - Chart and select line chart:

Simulated Price for One Year

We have now successfully completed one simulation. And depending on your results, they could look normal...or downright crazy.

Create a scenario tab, setup a table to simulate 1,000 different one-year trials. In A3 to A1003, put the numbers 1 through 1000.

In B3, put the formula:

=Close*EXP((annualDrift-0.5*annualVolatility^2)+annualVolatility*norminv(rand(),0,1))Copy the formula down all the way. Name this range "scores":

Simulate Bitcoin Prices for Many Years

=AVERAGE(scores) =STDEVP(scores) =MIN(scores) =MAX(scores) =E6-E5Multiyear Summary Statistics

Mean $27,147 Median $16,097 St. Dev $37,243 Min $556 Max $479,586 Range $479,029 3sd $1,486 2sd $3,005 1sd $5,850 Cur $16,098 1sd $43,896 2sd $81,998 3sd $190,129

Lognormal Distribution of Bitcoin Prices

Good statistical analysis methods can be scary, but they don't have to be. Here we covered off on a great method for estimating future Bitcoin prices, which can also be applied to other cryptocurrencies.

With this new tool in place, you can be confident in your risk analysis methods by seeing all the possible outcomes of your decisions, and assess the impact of risk.

Deliberate. Analytical. Intelligent.

7 Smart Ethereum Price Prediction Methods for HODL’ers

He is the author of the Spreadstreet blog, which has over 3 readers (not a typo). He hopes to hit 10, but honestly writing is a lot of work.

I’m considering investing in an online crypto currency casino. While I’m quite sure it’s a good idea, I’d like to know if anyone can find any flaw in my reasoning.

By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

Other investors withdraw and sell all the CLAM they earn (staking plus casino profits), which are gambled afterwards. Your share of JD’s bankroll keeps increasing, so you both stake more and get more from player's losses. Market cap value doesn’t change (it slightly increases as long as you hold).

Other investors just hold too. CLAM are being hoarded and therefore they become more valuable. People wanting to gamble $X now have to buy less CLAM. Less CLAM are wagered, but your CLAM increase in value.

Other investors withdraw their coins and they are staked somewhere else. The effect of this is a bit better than if others investors just hold like you, as you keep getting a bigger share of the coins won from players.

Other investors withdraw their coins and then they are not being staked (they are hold by traders at exchanges, for example). This scenario is even better as your share of the staked coins also rises.

CLAM start being accepted in more places, and therefore their demand increases.

BTC rises. CLAM partially rises too, because of BTC owners being able to gamble more USD and because of some people wanting to diversify among different crypto currencies.

BTC drops. CLAM partially drops, but the amount of wagered CLAM per day increases as more need to be used to gamble the same amount of USD.

So basically, it's reasonable to expect the market cap to keep rising, instead of staying constant.

submitted by Juandelacruzq to Crypto_General [link] [comments]
By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

Other investors withdraw and sell all the CLAM they earn (staking plus casino profits), which are gambled afterwards. Your share of JD’s bankroll keeps increasing, so you both stake more and get more from player's losses. Market cap value doesn’t change (it slightly increases as long as you hold).

Other investors just hold too. CLAM are being hoarded and therefore they become more valuable. People wanting to gamble $X now have to buy less CLAM. Less CLAM are wagered, but your CLAM increase in value.

Other investors withdraw their coins and they are staked somewhere else. The effect of this is a bit better than if others investors just hold like you, as you keep getting a bigger share of the coins won from players.

Other investors withdraw their coins and then they are not being staked (they are hold by traders at exchanges, for example). This scenario is even better as your share of the staked coins also rises.

CLAM start being accepted in more places, and therefore their demand increases.

BTC rises. CLAM partially rises too, because of BTC owners being able to gamble more USD and because of some people wanting to diversify among different crypto currencies.

BTC drops. CLAM partially drops, but the amount of wagered CLAM per day increases as more need to be used to gamble the same amount of USD.

So basically, it's reasonable to expect the market cap to keep rising, instead of staying constant.

I’m considering investing in an online crypto currency casino. While I’m quite sure it’s a good idea, I’d like to know if anyone can find any flaw in my reasoning.

By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

submitted by Juandelacruzq to altcoin [link] [comments]
By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

- Other investors withdraw and sell all the CLAM they earn (staking plus casino profits), which are gambled afterwards. Your share of JD’s bankroll keeps increasing, so you both stake more and get more from player's losses. Market cap value doesn’t change (it slightly increases as long as you hold).
- Other investors just hold too. CLAM are being hoarded and therefore they become more valuable. People wanting to gamble $X now have to buy less CLAM. Less CLAM are wagered, but your CLAM increase in value.
- Other investors withdraw their coins and they are staked somewhere else. The effect of this is a bit better than if others investors just hold like you, as you keep getting a bigger share of the coins won from players.
- Other investors withdraw their coins and then they are not being staked (they are hold by traders at exchanges, for example). This scenario is even better as your share of the staked coins also rises.
- CLAM start being accepted in more places, and therefore their demand increases.
- BTC rises. CLAM partially rises too, because of BTC owners being able to gamble more USD and because of some people wanting to diversify among different crypto currencies.
- BTC drops. CLAM partially drops, but the amount of wagered CLAM per day increases as more need to be used to gamble the same amount of USD.

I’m considering investing in an online crypto currency casino. While I’m quite sure it’s a good idea, I’d like to know if anyone can find any flaw in my reasoning.

By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

Other investors withdraw and sell all the CLAM they earn (staking plus casino profits), which are gambled afterwards. Your share of JD’s bankroll keeps increasing, so you both stake more and get more from player's losses. Market cap value doesn’t change (it slightly increases as long as you hold).

Other investors just hold too. CLAM are being hoarded and therefore they become more valuable. People wanting to gamble $X now have to buy less CLAM. Less CLAM are wagered, but your CLAM increase in value.

Other investors withdraw their coins and they are staked somewhere else. The effect of this is a bit better than if others investors just hold like you, as you keep getting a bigger share of the coins won from players.

Other investors withdraw their coins and then they are not being staked (they are hold by traders at exchanges, for example). This scenario is even better as your share of the staked coins also rises.

CLAM start being accepted in more places, and therefore their demand increases.

BTC rises. CLAM partially rises too, because of BTC owners being able to gamble more USD and because of some people wanting to diversify among different crypto currencies.

BTC drops. CLAM partially drops, but the amount of wagered CLAM per day increases as more need to be used to gamble the same amount of USD.

So basically, it's reasonable to expect the market cap to keep rising, instead of staying constant.

submitted by Juandelacruzq to crypto_currency [link] [comments]
By investing, your deposit is added to the casino bankroll, so that players gamble against it. You get a share of the site profits proportional to how much of the bankroll you own. So if the bankroll is 99 and you invest 1, the total becomes 100 and you earn 1% of the casino profits (your share changes as other people invest or divest).

The casino I’m thinking about is Just Dice, which is the oldest casino of this kind. It originally worked with Bitcoins, but now it uses another currency, called CLAM. The owner, Dooglus on Bitcointalk forums and Reddit, has been a very active and trustworthy user for years. The casino had a bankroll of about 50000 BTC for months and there was never any solvency issue (https://blockchain.info/charts/balance?address=14o7zMMUJkG6De24r3JkJ6USgChq7iWF86×pan=all). I don’t see him running away with the money.

While using a small currency may seem negative, in this case it actually boosts expected returns drastically. That’s because CLAM is a proof of stake currency, and while Just Dice’s bankroll is only about 40% of the total CLAM supply, it stakes about 85% of the coins (so more than double than it “should”). This is more beneficial the highest the inflation rate is, and CLAM’s inflation rate is still quite high nowadays (1 block is mined per minute and the reward is 1 CLAM, so 1440 coins a day are created, or 525600 a year, while 2.78 million coins exist).

Just Dice’s edge is 1%, and it charges a 10% fee to investors. I have made an spreadsheet with the expected annual returns (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13REkpErWxlXs2T5kNHKZlHsNvyuGAxezfB_iaUrskQ4/edit?usp=sharing), considering both that the market cap in USD stays constant (which is extremely conservative as I’ll explain later) and coin price stays constant (which is more reasonable). In the first case you should expect an annual return of 26.71% in USD, 53.14% if CLAM’s price doesn’t change. These returns are already quite impressive, but you should expect even higher ones if BTC keeps rising, as it affects CLAM’s price favourably.

Historically investing in Just Dice’s has been extremely profitable, much more than those expected returns. $1 invested on 3/7/2015 would be more than $26.54 on 11/27/2017 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg26095416#msg26095416). That’s a compound annual return of 232%.

These are some scenarios you can expect while you buy and hold Just Dice:

Other investors withdraw and sell all the CLAM they earn (staking plus casino profits), which are gambled afterwards. Your share of JD’s bankroll keeps increasing, so you both stake more and get more from player's losses. Market cap value doesn’t change (it slightly increases as long as you hold).

Other investors just hold too. CLAM are being hoarded and therefore they become more valuable. People wanting to gamble $X now have to buy less CLAM. Less CLAM are wagered, but your CLAM increase in value.

Other investors withdraw their coins and they are staked somewhere else. The effect of this is a bit better than if others investors just hold like you, as you keep getting a bigger share of the coins won from players.

Other investors withdraw their coins and then they are not being staked (they are hold by traders at exchanges, for example). This scenario is even better as your share of the staked coins also rises.

CLAM start being accepted in more places, and therefore their demand increases.

BTC rises. CLAM partially rises too, because of BTC owners being able to gamble more USD and because of some people wanting to diversify among different crypto currencies.

BTC drops. CLAM partially drops, but the amount of wagered CLAM per day increases as more need to be used to gamble the same amount of USD.

So basically, it's reasonable to expect the market cap to keep rising, instead of staying constant.

Period: 2191.38 days

### Top Submitters' Top Submissions

### Top Commenters

### Top Submissions

### Top Comments

submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]
Submissions | Comments | |
---|---|---|

Total | 999 | 81641 |

Rate (per day) | 0.46 | 37.23 |

Unique Redditors | 501 | 8290 |

Combined Score | 247608 | 469801 |

- 9023 points, 34 submissions: TheGreatRoh

- Stefan Molyneux on Twitter | "Bernie promised cheap education. $27 average donation. Mission accomplished. $27 got you truly schooled on the reality of Dem politics." (746 points, 158 comments)
- Brain damage explains a lot (491 points, 72 comments)
- Ron Paul standing up for what's right. (418 points, 47 comments)
- This Tweet Didn't Age Well (409 points, 47 comments)
- Hillary Clinton on Assange "Can't we just drone this guy" -- report (345 points, 85 comments)
- BREAKING: Trump to sign exec. order this morning requiring that for every 1 new regulation, 2 regulations have to be revoked - sr. official (337 points, 122 comments)
- Ouch (337 points, 42 comments)
- So Swings the Pendulum of History (312 points, 31 comments)
- Resist! The more you think about it the best this one gets (302 points, 50 comments)
- Here is Rand Paul's healthcare plan. It's 4 pages long. It simplifies the entire process, removes federal bureaucracy, and lowers costs. EVERYONE SHOULD READ IT! (284 points, 75 comments)

- 8356 points, 24 submissions: TrueBC

- Small Government (715 points, 97 comments)
- Good Guy Communism (698 points, 14 comments)
- Real Thinking (616 points, 60 comments)
- When You're an Anarcho Communist And You Receive Inheritance (544 points, 128 comments)
- Every. God. Damn. Time! (487 points, 71 comments)
- Good Cops (468 points, 79 comments)
- Typical Proletariat (407 points, 100 comments)
- AnCap Problems (368 points, 60 comments)
- Fucking Statist Parents (336 points, 27 comments)
- Roads Problem Solved (331 points, 59 comments)

- 4593 points, 16 submissions: Pinochet-Heli-Tours

- This guy (715 points, 97 comments)
- Leftist logic with estate taxes (487 points, 123 comments)
- Before there was capitalism food would just magically appear (376 points, 155 comments)
- Socialism 101 (342 points, 168 comments)
- I hate it when people cheat (326 points, 61 comments)
- Communist vs Nature (295 points, 101 comments)
- This guy... (253 points, 50 comments)
- Triggered! (251 points, 116 comments)
- Good riddance (243 points, 100 comments)
- If there's less food in socialism, how does that explain the toilet paper shortages? (223 points, 28 comments)

- 3993 points, 1 submission: an1h

- TSA agents vs terrorists (3993 points, 173 comments)

- 3413 points, 13 submissions: kurokamifr

- When you are american (568 points, 94 comments)
- socialism (392 points, 110 comments)
- When you love the poor (336 points, 81 comments)
- Brain expanding meme on communist (295 points, 39 comments)
- A group of ancaps were able to get the IRS Facebook page removed... (263 points, 22 comments)
- Rigging the Election - Video I: Clinton Campaign and DNC Incite Violence at Trump Rallies (260 points, 73 comments)
- Rigging the Election - Video II: Mass Voter Fraud (222 points, 78 comments)
- who is prepared for the WW3? (215 points, 52 comments)
- rly make you think (185 points, 134 comments)
- Warning: Trudeau has allowed banks to seize your money if economy fails (181 points, 67 comments)

- 3173 points, 6 submissions: -INFOWARS-

- Louds and clear (1119 points, 180 comments)
- Makes you think... (742 points, 161 comments)
- Ron Paul destroys Obama (499 points, 78 comments)
- This is 100% real. Brainwashing by the Mainstream Media (341 points, 109 comments)
- Powerful argument. (300 points, 185 comments)
- When your ideology is so good the only arguments against it are straw man memes (172 points, 134 comments)

- 3036 points, 13 submissions: bearjewpacabra

- Nigel Farage: "None of you have ever done a proper job in your lives, or worked in business or worked in trade or indeed ever created a job" (354 points, 160 comments)
- Why is "income tax" a thing that exists?? It's income. They feed their kids with that. Just leave their income alone. (323 points, 147 comments)
- Statists reacting to "Taxation is theft" (297 points, 46 comments)
- Without the state, who would drop tear gas from helicopters on their half starved tax cattle? (261 points, 54 comments)
- Cops demand Uber driver turn off his camera, citing new law, threaten him with jail, say they will search his car with sniffer dogs. Driver refuses, because it turns out the driver is also an attorney and he knows no such law exists. • news (253 points, 62 comments)
- Remember when watching tonight's debate... (247 points, 89 comments)
- Was very happy to see this on /all (234 points, 40 comments)
- Virginia Shooter Identified As 66-Year-Old James Hodgkinson, Supporter Of Bernie Sanders (219 points, 129 comments)
- George Soros Hacked, Over 2,500 Internal Docs Released Online (198 points, 34 comments)
- Without government, who would create nationwide initiatives to fuck up the food supply based on irrational, government produced data? (173 points, 33 comments)

- 2924 points, 9 submissions: Z3F

- How to trigger /Socialism (772 points, 200 comments)
- The John Oliver formula (443 points, 84 comments)
- Trump Triggers a room full of Socialism sympathizers (351 points, 154 comments)
- Peak Reddit (317 points, 118 comments)
- And quality of life in the Commune dramatically improved overnight. (263 points, 68 comments)
- Found at a hostel I am staying at in Detroit. It's leaking into real life. (219 points, 155 comments)
- Obama Quietly Signs The Truly Orwellian "Countering Disinformation And Propaganda Act" Into Law (201 points, 27 comments)
- The easiest question you'll be asked today. (187 points, 64 comments)
- The window of allowable opinion continues to shrink. YouTube is now quarantining videos that academically discuss differences in IQ averages between ethnicities. (171 points, 97 comments)

- 2906 points, 1 submission: FreeqAxel

- Ron Paul got an electoral vote from Texas. (2906 points, 128 comments)

- 2565 points, 14 submissions: Anenome5

- Detroit starting to get it: 'Why should I send them taxes when they aren't supplying services?’ homeowner Fred Phillips who owes more than $2,600 recently told the paper. 'Every time I see the tax bill come, I think about the times we called and nobody came.' (247 points, 130 comments)
- Kaspersky reveals software buried in the firmware of world's major harddrive manufacturers gives NSA ability to spy on majority of the world's computers (229 points, 72 comments)
- The parable of the Village and the Tower (202 points, 44 comments)
- Descent of the Libertarians (200 points, 163 comments)
- Mises attacks Racism; "racism is not just contrary to [classical] liberalism, but to reason itself. It’s a denial of the most fundamental truths of economics... Theories of racial conflict reject peaceful social cooperation and instead promote conflict and war as the foundations of human society." (185 points, 161 comments)
- Cops arrest jogger for not having ID (182 points, 74 comments)
- My favorite ancap jokey-story :) (177 points, 68 comments)
- Sometimes the indoctrination isn't subtle. (176 points, 70 comments)
- This is fantastic--government tax collectors in Mogadishu complain no one wants to pay taxes, they "consider me to be a bandit." You are a bandit, sir. (171 points, 65 comments)
- Checkmate, intellectual-property fans ;P (164 points, 79 comments)

- 2557 points, 10 submissions: coupdetaco

- It's totally not rigged... anymore (754 points, 87 comments)
- She cannot recall (295 points, 23 comments)
- We've always been at war with Eastasia (267 points, 17 comments)
- Just wanted to give credit to leftists for breaking those glass ceilings (216 points, 8 comments)
- Cop tricks person into putting out a cigarette to use that as an excuse to arrest him and search his car (212 points, 140 comments)
- "If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there would be a shortage of sand" (181 points, 25 comments)
- We've always been at war with Eurasia (162 points, 11 comments)
- Mexican dentists near border crossing town get 95% customers from USA. They charge 75% less and their "materials and equipment are just as good or even better" (160 points, 38 comments)
- Just wanted to help everyone here understand Socialism (159 points, 11 comments)
- In fairness to her, that level of corruption is almost like a magic trick (151 points, 16 comments)

- 2398 points, 9 submissions: ancapistan_man

- Bread lines (542 points, 111 comments)
- All the hypocrisy. (341 points, 82 comments)
- All the above. (317 points, 63 comments)
- Battle of the statists. (253 points, 127 comments)
- We're gonna need a bigger boat. (224 points, 12 comments)
- [foaming at the mouth] Not real communism! (198 points, 14 comments)
- But without government.... (190 points, 29 comments)
- Literally shaking. (171 points, 61 comments)
- iT wAsN't ReAl CoMmUnIsM. (162 points, 13 comments)

- 2367 points, 10 submissions: Anen-o-me

- /A_C's opinion of Gary Johnson in one image (464 points, 123 comments)
- Time-Warner increases internet speeds six-fold at no extra charge after Google Fiber announces plans to expand into their territory --- so in other words, competition works (312 points, 43 comments)
- Vince Vaughn -- “We have the right to bear arms to resist the supreme power of a corrupt and abusive government” (227 points, 37 comments)
- After seeing this I have a strong urge to become a graffiti artist (215 points, 51 comments)
- Reddit's Former Leadership was planning to make Reddit a completely Decentralized App with bitcoin micropayments as upvotes for incentive, but after taking a $50m funding round, management was replaced and monetization focus began. Now ex employees are building what Reddit should've become. (215 points, 65 comments)
- SCOTUS Justice: If two can marry, why not four? -- How about you stop licensing marriage in the first place. (195 points, 111 comments)
- Satoshi Nakamoto nominated for Nobel Prize in Economics (190 points, 61 comments)
- politics realizes the presidency has too much power: "Don’t Just Impeach Trump. End the Imperial Presidency." (189 points, 60 comments)
- Meanwhile, at Molyneux's Freedomain Radio Headquarters... (183 points, 409 comments)
- Obama endorses Bitcoin... (177 points, 32 comments)

- 2220 points, 10 submissions: SnakesoverEagles

- Crying wolf: the left doesn't know how to stop losing (335 points, 182 comments)
- in light of recent events, here is Thomas Sowell (276 points, 264 comments)
- Ron Paul - Bernie Sanders destroyed Audit the Fed Bill at the last minute (236 points, 26 comments)
- Basic free market college group denied a local chapter because they are "white supreemists" (220 points, 227 comments)
- Get out your tinfoil hats boys (212 points, 95 comments)
- An old classic (206 points, 57 comments)
- Hillary email leaks prove that the same people who fund her campaign (Saudi Arabia) are funding ISIS - when will this house of cards fall? (205 points, 25 comments)
- Please clap (183 points, 55 comments)
- Ron Paul - Stump the socialist (176 points, 139 comments)
- Why Tim Kaine was picked as VP (171 points, 101 comments)

- 2219 points, 8 submissions: SuaveCrouton

- Late Stage Capitalism (405 points, 90 comments)
- Social Democracy (371 points, 51 comments)
- But it wasn't a real rocket (305 points, 30 comments)
- The Green Party dilemma (304 points, 71 comments)
- LateStageCapitalism_irl (236 points, 34 comments)
- When I look at gains from free trade (218 points, 21 comments)
- The world as 100 people over the last two centuries (213 points, 103 comments)
- Private Eye explains Corbynomics (167 points, 23 comments)

- 1932 points, 8 submissions: LibertyAboveALL

- Julian Assange offers job to fired Google employee who wrote "anti-diversity" memo - "Censorship is for losers." (426 points, 124 comments)
- Great idea on road sign from Mexican restaurant in Austin (278 points, 30 comments)
- Gmail will now warn you if you’re being targeted by the government (260 points, 26 comments)
- Calexit Means American Taxpayers Won't Have To Bailout California's Ticking Pension Time Bomb (251 points, 69 comments)
- Uber threatens exit Houston over regulations. Mayor says "I'm happy to sit down with you [Uber] but I'm not going to do business with you with a gun to my head." - you really can't make this shit up! (245 points, 79 comments)
- AAA, largest U.S. automobile club, calls for scrapping police marijuana THC test for drivers. AAA's safety foundation said it's not possible to set a blood-test threshold for THC that can reliably determine impairment. (160 points, 33 comments)
- TIL: SEC laws stop crowd-funding sites, like INDIEGOGO, from offering investor equity financing options for non-accredited investors (average person). In other words, the government only allows rich people to do it. (160 points, 66 comments)
- Dying mom kidney transplant surgery on hold due to GoFundMe donations since they could constitute ‘organ selling’, which is a U.S. federal crime. (152 points, 47 comments)

- 1854 points, 8 submissions: Mashimoto

- Venezuela bans lines outside of bakeries declaring them a clear political stunt to discredit socialism (289 points, 50 comments)
- Someone made a Chrome extension that changes "white" to "black" on Huffpo, Salon, and Buzzfeed (283 points, 69 comments)
- How Liberals really feel about black people (265 points, 106 comments)
- (old footage) Ron Paul makes standard libertarian arguments against the drug war that are now almost universally accepted to an absolutely hostile host/audience. Amazing how attitudes can change (263 points, 138 comments)
- It Looks Like George Soros is Funding the Trump Protests (256 points, 72 comments)
- Charles Rangel's Freudian Slip (181 points, 21 comments)
- "Only the rich will have X technology" India's $4 smartphone. (166 points, 44 comments)
- Bernie Sanders Resume from the 1980s (151 points, 118 comments)

- 1756 points, 7 submissions: MaunaLoona

- 4chan on communism (539 points, 122 comments)
- Canadian man fights off home invaders by taking their gun and shooting them; gets charged with attempted murder and nine other firearms related charges (312 points, 76 comments)
- But without the government who would fund PBS? Reading Rainbow raises $1 million on kickstarter in the first day. (202 points, 59 comments)
- Adam Kokesh on CBS (197 points, 213 comments)
- Apparently we have a new mascot (174 points, 30 comments)
- What $15/hr minimum wage looks like (169 points, 182 comments)
- To protect you from fake news the US government launches a fact checking web site (163 points, 53 comments)

- 1663 points, 5 submissions: Uncle_Washington

- LateStageCapitalism logic (456 points, 98 comments)
- Macarons va Macron (401 points, 39 comments)
- Like scientist we have to prove our theory (380 points, 83 comments)
- Feel the Bern out (245 points, 71 comments)
- The North Remembers (181 points, 14 comments)

- 1582 points, 2 submissions: pseudoRndNbr

- 1581 points, 4 submissions: Ze-skywalker

- Rare picture of a child about to be born (530 points, 70 comments)
- "The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false front for the urge to rule it." H.L. Mencken (428 points, 13 comments)
- Woke (370 points, 44 comments)
- Capitalism X Socialism (253 points, 49 comments)

- 1576 points, 6 submissions: HEADPOCKET

- What a novel idea. (477 points, 87 comments)
- Mises before bitches. (325 points, 56 comments)
- Here is your average "pro-science" liberal. (266 points, 93 comments)
- If Sweden and Germany Became US States, They Would be Among the Poorest States (189 points, 97 comments)
- Can't explain that. (162 points, 51 comments)
- George Zimmer, the owner and founder of The Men's Wearhouse, does not background check his employees. "I don't trust the U.S. justice system to get it right," says Zimmer, who is himself a recovering alcoholic. "I'd rather make my own decisions." : todayilearned (157 points, 32 comments)

- 1568 points, 6 submissions: Jamesshrugged

- The consequences of racism (395 points, 135 comments)
- The lesson liberals are going to learn under the new administration. (343 points, 48 comments)
- Every single time (295 points, 22 comments)
- Give me Liberty or gtfo! (191 points, 61 comments)
- anarcho_capitalism's most used words (174 points, 71 comments)
- /philosophy mods have completely banned posts about Ayn Rand (on grounds that she is an author, not a philosopher) (170 points, 134 comments)

- 1478 points, 6 submissions: ayanamirs

- Could someone please explain this? (388 points, 84 comments)
- Slate (297 points, 43 comments)
- LMAO (232 points, 58 comments)
- Mises Cuba! (210 points, 45 comments)
- Ancap Studies (181 points, 55 comments)
- Wtf? Anarcho-capitalists (170 points, 144 comments)

- 1468 points, 1 submission: How_To_Liberty

- I used to be an Ancap, but my job made me turn to socialism. (1468 points, 118 comments)

- 1464 points, 6 submissions: spatchcock

- Happy thanksgiving /ancap (496 points, 86 comments)
- They aren't protesters or rioters. They're Keynesian stimulus operatives, and Krugman disapproves. (223 points, 22 comments)
- This kid will go places. Also, I guarantee there's a bureaucrat out there somewhere who is trying to stop him. (213 points, 53 comments)
- This is what good parenting looks like, but yet to leftists and some bureaucrats this is horrible because its un-taxed income, dangerously unregulated, exploitation, and child labor. (190 points, 65 comments)
- Wow TED talks really suck now - "Capitalism will eat democracy unless we speak up" - By Yanis Varoufakis (the greek finance minister. Yes Greece, the European country that adopted DemSoc ideals and is now riddled with debt) (180 points, 203 comments)
- If I were a big corporation I'd lobby for higher minimum wages and rally the useful idiots on the left to my cause as well. (162 points, 33 comments)

- 1414 points, 7 submissions: moople1

- And anarcho communism was born. (239 points, 772 comments)
- Work or die. (239 points, 227 comments)
- The relationship between Bernie's socialism and the market summed up perfectly. (238 points, 48 comments)
- Finally it's fixed! Now children won't starve to death. (199 points, 123 comments)
- "Yo mama's so statist" jokes… (180 points, 96 comments)
- Hating the Establishment Is Not the Same as Supporting Liberty (164 points, 41 comments)
- 2016 Nolan Chart (155 points, 128 comments)

- Faceh (5402 points, 264 comments)
- aletoledo (3908 points, 532 comments)
- Anen-o-me (3667 points, 569 comments)
- andkon (3362 points, 237 comments)
- Lethn (3201 points, 304 comments)
- halfback910 (3043 points, 500 comments)
- ChopperIndacar (2799 points, 402 comments)
- Mashimoto (2207 points, 181 comments)
- LOST_TALE (2150 points, 507 comments)
- Harnisfechten (2122 points, 299 comments)
- TheGreatRoh (2085 points, 237 comments)
- Anenome5 (1990 points, 293 comments)
- LibertyAboveALL (1974 points, 316 comments)
- Anarkhon (1925 points, 42 comments)
- natermer (1873 points, 239 comments)
- Not_Pictured (1835 points, 173 comments)
- bearjewpacabra (1813 points, 267 comments)
- maszyna (1769 points, 224 comments)
- chbrules (1745 points, 200 comments)
- jatucker (1688 points, 131 comments)
- LookingForMySelf (1637 points, 274 comments)
- bhknb (1590 points, 329 comments)
- Argosy37 (1568 points, 113 comments)
- stormsbrewing (1562 points, 107 comments)
- GuyFromV (1466 points, 313 comments)
- TheSelfGoverned (1416 points, 204 comments)
- deefop (1369 points, 153 comments)
- samsonkeane (1364 points, 129 comments)
- ProjectD13X (1351 points, 193 comments)
- Pinochet-Heli-Tours (1328 points, 112 comments)
- RonaldMcPaul (1306 points, 250 comments)
- Juz16 (1271 points, 151 comments)

- TSA agents vs terrorists by an1h (3993 points, 173 comments)
- Ron Paul got an electoral vote from Texas. by FreeqAxel (2906 points, 128 comments)
- I used to be an Ancap, but my job made me turn to socialism. by How_To_Liberty (1468 points, 118 comments)
- CNN: It's illegal for you to read the leaked emails. Only we are allowed to do it. by pseudoRndNbr (1353 points, 149 comments)
- Louds and clear by -INFOWARS- (1119 points, 180 comments)
- Arguing about the state of Venezuela to a redditor by Phresh_Prince (809 points, 182 comments)
- How to trigger /Socialism by Z3F (772 points, 200 comments)
- It's totally not rigged... anymore by coupdetaco (754 points, 87 comments)
- Stefan Molyneux on Twitter | "Bernie promised cheap education. $27 average donation. Mission accomplished. $27 got you truly schooled on the reality of Dem politics." by TheGreatRoh (746 points, 158 comments)
- Makes you think... by -INFOWARS- (742 points, 161 comments)

- 1523 points: Anarkhon's comment in Looting intensifies in Venezuela - only 15 days worth of food remains
- 1070 points: cockholster_69's comment in Is having daughters the ultimate cuckoldry?
- 495 points: Faceh's comment in Ron Paul got an electoral vote from Texas.
- 456 points:
*deleted*'s comment in Is having daughters the ultimate cuckoldry? - 423 points: FidelHimself's comment in I used to be an Ancap, but my job made me turn to socialism.
- 396 points: narutouz's comment in Is having daughters the ultimate cuckoldry?
- 336 points: skylercollins's comment in Is having daughters the ultimate cuckoldry?
- 329 points: backwardsmiley's comment in / physical_removal was just banned
- 283 points: misery_man's comment in Is having daughters the ultimate cuckoldry?
- 250 points: Avertus's comment in I used to be an Ancap, but my job made me turn to socialism.

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